July 17, 2007

Saaaay--that's pretty interesting!

If you're down in Auburn tomorrow, you might want to check this out: Estimating Project Volatility using Monte Carlo Simulation in Real Options Analysis

Stuff like this is really interesting to me, because I drove a '72 Monte Carlo in high school.

Posted by Terry Oglesby at July 17, 2007 09:39 AM
Comments

So John von Neumann was riding shotgun? It wouldn't have been a good idea to let him drive.

Posted by: steevil (Dr Weevil's bro Steve) at July 17, 2007 09:51 AM

It was only a couple of years ago that I finally figured out that Monte Carlo simulations didn't necessarily pertain to a certain casino, but were instead a powerful mathematical tool. Fortunately for me I also figured out that wasn't something I had to understand, either. WAY-Y-Y out of my league.

Posted by: Stan at July 17, 2007 09:52 AM

Steevil, it wasn't a very good idea to let him ride 'gun, either.

Posted by: Terry Oglesby at July 17, 2007 09:54 AM

Hey, now. That is the subject material I have been studying in my MBA finance classes. That lecture will probably draw a big crowd. Like, three people.

Posted by: megabeth at July 17, 2007 10:36 AM

If only there were some way to predict with some level of precision how many people would show up...

Posted by: Terry Oglesby at July 17, 2007 10:40 AM

OK, a REALLY dumb question for Megabeth: do many companies in Birmingham use Monte Carlo simulations? If their use is taught in MBA finance classes I guess they must be more widely used than I had thought, anyway.

Posted by: Stan at July 17, 2007 10:52 AM

I don't know that, but I would assume yes. My employer hires risk analysts who use them to predict project costs based on random scenarios, and also we pay third party forecasters who use them to predict future commodity prices.

Posted by: megabeth at July 17, 2007 01:05 PM

Hey, thanks for the information. Reading about your job and those other positions hired by your company helps me see how complex the economy truly is.

Posted by: Stan at July 17, 2007 03:06 PM

Wow! you had a advanced transportation device Terry. I'll bet it had things like shocks & working breaks! Still my '48 Ford coupe was better than shanks mare.

Posted by: Chef Tony at July 17, 2007 04:00 PM

It did, although its downfall was a set of tires with no tread on the rear end.

Posted by: Terry Oglesby at July 17, 2007 04:04 PM